Second guessing Irene

We love to second guess.

Part of our DNA make-up, it seems, is to play Monday morning quarterback and analyze decisions and events.

We second guess ourselves, but it seems there’s more sport in second guessing others.

Irene -- the hurricane that became a tropical storm -- is a case in point.

As she churned up the eastern seaboard last week, making landfall in North Carolina as a Category 1 hurricane, there were dire warnings through the northeast.

Weather forecasters and the media were full of predictions about what could happen -- in particular to highly-populated, vulnerable areas like the Jersey shore and New York City.

Evacuations were ordered. For the first time in its history, NYC shut down mass transit.

But once Irene blasted and soaked her way through with wind and tropical rain, the second guessing began, particularly in New York City where the consequences weren’t so dire.

Why all the hype? Why did forecasters get it wrong?

The truth is, hype and error are in the eye of the beholder.

Weather forecasting is an educated guess, and in particular for major storms like this one you’re damned if you do, damned if you don’t.

Those who weren’t affected by the storm profess it was no big deal, that the hype wasn’t necessary.

Those who were affected by the storm -- and I count myself among them -- believe Irene was as nasty as predicted and deserved every amount of warning and hype that she received.

True, she didn’t batter New York City. True, she didn’t tear up the northeast coast.

But look at what she did to inland sections of New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Vermont.

Take a look at the pictures from Paterson, New Jersey or Brattleboro, Vermont.

Her rain wasn’t much of a factor for me here in southern New Hampshire, but her rain was a huge factor in the state’s north country where entire areas were cut off by rapidly rising river water.

Sections of the famous and picturesque Kancamagus Highway were torn apart by raging water in the Swift River. The road is closed.

Fortunately, the rain in my area wasn’t too bad. My sump pump never kicked in. But the wind was responsible for the power I lost for two days, and the wind was responsible for the large maple tree that blew over, landing in the backyard about 30 feet from the house, destroying a fence (see photo).

I might have been thinking like the second guessers. Until the lights went out. I might have been thinking like the second guessers. Until the tree came crashing down.

I won’t second guess Irene. She was as bad as forecast. And she deserved every warning and all the hype that accompanied her.

Now, who’s this Katia they’re beginning to talk about?